I'm a big fan of the web site
ChangeThis. We all can benefit from a good dose of inspiration from time to time - the kind that makes us step back for a few moments and consider what's important and how to accomplish it.
Recently, Ian Saunders' and David Sloly's slide deck on "How Unplanning Your Business Can Make it Happen Faster" caught my attention. Why? Because I have always taken pride in my skills at researching, strategizing, and detailing what it would take to make a new product or a new business successful at the top and bottom lines of a P&L and, with some difficulty, a balance sheet. Not just the financial modeling based on input from others but painstakingly thinking through and estimating significant cost items (most notably cost per lead), conversion rates, key capital investments, operating expenses...you get the picture.
These business planning skills are highly valued by many companies and a few even "work the plan" after "planning the work". Yet I am well aware that a number of successful internet-based businesses were not meticulously planned and that most details of the founders' original vision for the business and even the revenue models themselves changed several times and may change yet again. But is thorough planning more than just a waste of precious time? Does it reach the point of being a hindrance to success? I wanted to see what Saunders and Sloly had to say. Can planning actually kill a business idea as they state in their introduction?:
The problem with writing a fixed plan is that you can get stuck in amber mode. You get so bogged down with hypotheticals, financial modeling and revenue projections that your cool business idea gets stuck in a spreadsheet and the light never goes green. Instead of focusing on making your business idea happen, you end up suffering from analysis paralysis: the number one killer of all great business ideas.”
Reading the "manifesto" (as presentations on ChangeThis are called) brought to the surface something I had avoided considering consciously - that our startup team had spent too much time and energy creating a defensible business plan. I think anyone who has sat across the table from VCs intent not only on making smart investments but also demonstrating their mental superiority - why they have the money and you don't (and won't by the way) - knows what I mean by defensible.
For truly new and novel businesses, the founders must make dozens or even scores of assumptions, often with no primary data and little to no secondary research to support them. If you haven't documented the rationale behind the guess-timates and, on top of that, you haven't properly integrated the resulting figures into both your financial model and your overall business case and performed credible best-case / worst-case analysis tweaking at least the key assumptions, how can you expect to survive a meeting with VCs? That was our thought process and the fear which drove us to obsess over the written plan and financial model.
We received accolades for the professionalism of the business plan but never landed the big bucks. In fact, the plan was so good that it successfully raised nearly $20 million - in two rounds - for a portfolio company of several VCs to whom we had presented it. But that's another story.
What I know in hindsight is that a thorough and professional business plan probably provides no more than 15% of the impetus for an angel or VC investment. A host of other factors are more important - the fit with the investor's portfolio strategy and their own interests as individuals, the perceived quality of the startup team, the startup's geographic proximity to the investors, how big the opportunity is, competition, and more.
If all the factors align in the entrepreneur's favor, the investors will probably recommend an investment at least double what the founders contemplated as necessary - no matter how meticulously they thought through their capital needs. That's partly because the investors will assume that your assumptions are wrong; that you'll wind up adjusting your business model; and that, therefore, you will need more money than you think. And they're more often right than wrong on this score. In light of that, it seems a little silly to burn out the team making the plan perfect.
I don't mean to recommend shoddy planning. It's still important to get a ballpark sense of whether the business has legs - is the addressable market big enough and can you get enough users / customers / site visitors at an economic cost. This is at least as important for the founders as it will, later, be for prospective investors. I've seen too many startups fail to complete this basic analysis before spending lots of time and money on businesses that never stood a chance.
Going forward I'll adjust my advice to entrepreneurs to concentrate a little less on having a super business plan and, instead spend the time and energy saved to do everything they can to gain traction in the marketplace with a basic, no-frills version of their business - warts and all.